@johnamonaco:
This will be a VERY controversial thing to say, but I’m going to say it anyways: “based” African Catholicism will not save the Church, and there are already cracks in the foundation. In fact, I predict that we are a decade away from a 2002 Boston-level scandal erupting on the continent.
Why do I say this?
First, as the article below demonstrates: celibacy among African clergy (or clergy, in general) isn’t a guarantee. As early as the 1980’s, it was an open secret that many of the Roman Catholic priests in Africa were violating celibacy. African cultural norms often stigmatize celibacy for men, and so many priests had secret families, girlfriends, etc. There is the apocryphal tale of Pope John Paul II’s meeting with an African bishop, telling him to reiterate to his clergy that they should not take a girlfriend, to which the African bishop responds, “Holy Father, we have a hard enough time keeping our priests down to just ONE woman, let alone none at all!” The foremost expert on the sex abuse scandal—Richard Sipe—noted that one study in South Africa found that 45% of Catholic priests reported being sexually active within the previous two years. Several studies (Wübbels, 2011; Juma, Du Toit, & Van der Merwe, 2018; Rop, 2025) have demonstrated that African priests have struggled to integrate the Roman Catholic discipline of mandatory celibacy with traditional African cultural norms, which have led a number of priests to father children out of wedlock.
Second, for many Africans, seminary and the priesthood are paths to high social status and education. A number of US dioceses found that they would get inquiries from African Catholic men looking for sponsorship. Pious Catholic media will say “that’s because African seminaries are full!” But that’s not the entire truth. There were numerous cases of men who were legitimately rejected from seminary in Nigeria and Uganda who applied to struggling dioceses in the US, who were unaware of the candidates’ red flags. US dioceses are desperate for seminarians, and African men are desperate for the benefits that come from a seminary education, including power, academic degrees, and social capital.
Third, there is already historical precedent in Africa for scandal. In 2018, a bombshell report revealed a systemic crisis of abuse by priests against nuns. Most disturbingly, nuns were assaulted because they were seen as “safe” targets during the HIV/AIDS crisis. Much of the reporting infrastructure in Africa remains underdeveloped and hasn’t caught up with the massive growth of the Church. Furthermore, whereas our Western culture and media has no problem criticizing or attacking clergy, in many African cultures, priests are seen as untouchable authority figures, and victims’ claims are often met with fierce criticism. Clericalism is a real thing there. In some ways, the noble status of the priest in 2026 Lagos is comparable to being a priest in 1926 Boston, and there are systems of power in place to protect the clerical caste.
The Church in Africa is often held up as the preeminent sign of growth and ecclesial success. They’re seen as the conservative lifeblood to the global Church, especially on issues of morality. And to be certain, there are many faithful Catholic bishops, priests, and laity on the continent. But the Church in Africa was simply not ready for its explosive growth. And I have a very bad feeling that within 10 years, we’ll witness a Spotlight-esque exposé on the African Church’s abuse crisis.
